With violence and instability engulfing portions of the globe, Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises perhaps dramatic changes on several fronts, so transforming US foreign policy.
Based on ideas of non-interventionism and trade protectionism, sometimes without particular details, Trump made broad policy pledges during his campaign – or as he puts it “America First”.
In the middle of concurrent crises, his triumph marks one of the most important possible upheavals in Washington’s foreign policy over many years.
From his remarks on the campaign trail and his track record in office from 2017 to 2021, we can put parts of his anticipated approach to various regions together.
Track real-time election day developments as Trump triumphs.
Whichever state each voted for?
Examining why the US granted Trump another opportunity
He takes office as US president when?
Now, what becomes of Trump’s legal cases?
Though it’s unclear how far the former advisers’ paper reflects Trump’s own ideas, it will probably provide some direction on the kind of counsel he should obtain.
Originally established as a barrier against the Soviet Union, his “America First” approach to ending the conflict also addresses the geopolitical question of the future of NATO, the transatlantic all-for-one and one-for-all military alliance built up following World conflict Two.
Reuters is Amid Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, a homeowner checks his apartment building hit by a Russian drone strike in the town of Krasylivka, Chernihiv area, Ukraine, 3 November 2024.REuters
In February 2022 Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Now numbering thirty-two countries, Trump has long been a critic of the alliance, charging Europe of free-riding on America’s offer of protection.
Still up for contention is whether he would really pull the US out of NATO, therefore indicating the most dramatic change in transatlantic defense relations in almost a century.
Some of his supporters claim his strict policies are only a negotiation ploy meant to compel
members to follow alliance defense expenditure policies.
The truth is, though, NATO officials will be particularly concerned about how his triumph would affect the alliance’s future and about how unfriendly leaders view its deterrent power.
Middle Eastern history
As with Ukraine, Trump has promised to bring “peace” to the Middle East – indicating he would stop the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon – but he has not stated just how.
According to him, Hamas would not have attacked Israel if he had been in office instead of Joe Biden because of his “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, which supports the group.
Broadly, Trump would probably want to go back to the approach, which saw his government withdraw the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement, apply more sanctions against Iran and murder Gen Qasem Soleimani – Iran’s most formidable military commander.
Strongly pro-Israel measures were passed by Trump in the White House, designating Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and shifting the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, so energising Trump’s Christian evangelical constituency, a fundamental Republican voter base.
Calling Trump the “best friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.
Critics counter his approach had a destabilising impact on the area.
Washington’s denial of their claim to Jerusalem, the city that forms the historical center of national and religious life for Palestinians, led the Palestinians to boycott the Trump administration.
Views of US elections by Israelis and Palestinians
US requests a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
Their isolation grew even more pronounced when Trump mediated the so-called “Abraham Accords,” which resulted in a historic agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and numerous Arab and Muslim nations. Previously a prerequisite of Arab nations for such a regional deal, they accomplished this without Israel having to accept a future independent Palestinian state alongside it – the so-called two-state solution.
Instead of recognition of Israel, the nations engaged were granted access to superior US weaponry in return.
The
only power that can truly apply leverage to both sides in the conflict put the
Palestinians at one of the most isolated times in their history, therefore
undermining their capacity as seen from the ground.
During the campaign, Trump expressed multiple remarks declaring he wanted the
fighting in Gaza to stop.
Though he has had a complicated, perhaps dysfunctional relationship with
Netanyahu, he most definitely has the power to press him.
He also has close ties to leaders of the important Arab nations who interact
with Hamas.
It’s unknown how he would balance seeking to end the war with his want to
display great support for the Israeli government.
Although Trump’s backers have often presented his erratic behavior as a
diplomatic advantage, it is difficult to see how this would play out in the
highly divided and unstable Middle East amid a crisis already of historical
proportions.
Trump will have to determine how – or whether – to progress the halted
diplomatic process started by the Biden administration to get a Gaza truce in
return for the release of the captives kept by Hamas.
Trade and China
America’s
approach to China is its most strategically significant foreign policy one,
with most effects on commerce and world security.
Trump declared China a “strategic competitor” while in office and
levies taxes on some Chinese shipments into the US. Beijing started
tit-for–tat tariffs on American products in response.
Although attempts were made to defuse the trade conflict, the Covid epidemic
eliminated this prospect, and relations deteriorated as the former president
called Covid a “Chinese virus”.
Although the Biden administration promised to approach China policy more
responsibly, it did in fact maintain many of the Trump-era tariffs on imports.
What US Chinese citizens desire?
Though much of the long-term jobs decline in traditional US industries like steel have been as much about factory automation and production changes as global competitiveness and offshoring, the trade policy has become tightly linked to domestic voter perceptions in the US about protecting American manufacturing jobs.
Trump has hailed Chinese President Xi Jinping as both “brilliant” and “dangerous,” a highly successful leader wielding a “iron fist” over 1.4 billion people—a reflection of what critics labeled as Trump’s respect for “dictators.”
In an effort to limit China, the former president most certainly will veer from the Biden administration’s strategy of forging closer US security alliances with other regional nations.
China regards as a renegade colony under ultimate sovereignty, the US has maintained military support for self-ruled Taiwan.
Trump declared in October that he would not have to use military action to stop a Chinese blockade of Taiwan should he return to the White House since President Xi knew he was “[expletive] crazy” and would apply paralysing tariffs on Chinese goods should that occur.
