https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19403381/embed?auto=1
Although nationwide polls are a good indicator of a candidate’s general popularity across the nation, they are not the best means to forecast the outcome of the election.
On Tuesday, US voters get to vote for their next president.
Originally a mirror image of 2020, the election was disrupted in July when President Joe Biden dropped his campaign and supported Vice-President Kamala Harris.
Now the major question is whether America will have a second Donald Trump administration or a first female presidency.
Watch live election updates.
About election night, all you need to know.
We shall know who has won when?
Who is spearheading national surveys?
Since Harris entered the race at the end of July, she has enjoyed a little lead over Trump in the national polling averages; she still leads as seen on the chart below with the most recent statistics rounded to the closest whole number.
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19298662/embed?auto=1
Although nationwide polls are a good indicator of a candidate’s general popularity throughout the nation, they are not the best means to forecast the outcome of the election.
That’s so because the US has an electoral college system whereby every state receives a number of votes generally commensurate with its population. There are 538 electoral college votes overall on offer, hence a contender must score 270 to be successful.
Though most of the 50 states in the US almost usually vote for the same party, in actuality just a few where both candidates have a chance of winning. Known as battleground states or swing states, these are the venues where the election will be won and lost.
The electoral college: what is it?
Path to 270: The states Obama and Trump must prevail.
Swing state polls: who is winning?
From looking at the polling averages, it is impossible to determine who is truly ahead as the leads in the swing states are now so modest.
It’s crucial to bear this in mind when reviewing the figures below since polls are meant to generally convey public opinion on a candidate or subject, not project the outcome of an election by less than a percentage point.
Remember also that the individual polls used to derive these averages have a margin of error of roughly three to four percentage points, hence either candidate could be performing better or worse than the figures now indicate.
