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According to Trump, mass deportations have no price tag. Trump claims “no price tag” for large-scale deportations.

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Declining on his campaign promise of mass deportation of illegal immigrants, US President-elect Donald Trump has doubled down that the cost of doing so would not be a deterrent.

In some of his first public comments upon election victory, Trump declared that his top focus upon becoming office in January will be to make the border “strong and powerful”.

“There is no price tag question here. Actually, Trump told NBC News, we have little option.

“People who have slain and murdered, drug lords who have devastated nations, and now they are returning to those nations since they are not living here. There is no tag on price.

His vice-president-elect JD Vance had claimed they would start with one million, although his campaign has offered different estimates as to how many could be eliminated.

During Thursday’s phone interview with NBC, Trump largely attributed his immigration stance for helping him to win the race.

“They want borders, and they like people coming in, but they have to come in with love for the country,” he remarked. They have to arrive legally.

Expelling so many people simultaneously presents major legal and logistical difficulties, according to experts.

With families ripped apart and raids occurring in towns and businesses all throughout the US, immigration supporters have also cautioned on the human cost of deportations.


Identify the legal challenges.

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Based on the most recent estimates from the Department of Homeland Security and Pew
Research, there are around 11 million illegal immigrants living in the US right
now—a count that has stayed rather constant since 2005.

Most live here long-term; over four-fifths have been in the nation for more
than ten years.

Immigrants without legal status have rights including due process, which
includes a judicial hearing prior to their deportation. A sharp rise in
deportations would probably mean a significant expansion in the immigration
court system, which has been afflicted with backlogs.

Most immigrants already in the nation join the deportation system through local
law enforcement rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice)
officials.

But several of the biggest towns and counties in the US have approved rules
prohibiting local police cooperation with Ice.

Trump has promised to strike against these “sanctuary cities,” but
the patchwork of municipal, state, and federal regulations that America boasts
complicates the matter.

Policy expert Kathleen Bush-Joseph of the Washington-based Migration Policy
Institute, or MPI, said that any major deportation scheme would depend
critically on cooperation between Ice and local authorities.

“It’s much easier for Ice to pick someone out from a jail if local law
enforcement co-operates, instead of having to go look for them,” she
remarked.

Ms. Bush-Joseph cited, for instance, an early August announcement from
Florida’s Broward and Palm Beach counties that they would not assign deputies
to assist any mass deportation scheme.

“There are many others who would not co-operatively support a Trump mass
deportation scheme,” she remarked. “That makes it rather more
difficult.”

Any mass deportation initiative is therefore likely to be almost immediately
greeted with a flurry of court challenges from immigration and human rights
campaigners.

However, a 2022 Supreme Court decision indicates that courts cannot provide
injunctions on immigration enforcement policies, so they would continue even as
the challenges traverse the judicial system.

Getty Images is Ice agents pulling a migrant from a Los Angeles raid in
September 2022Gettyimages
Ice enforcement further from the borders usually concentrates on suspects with
criminal records rather than recently arriving immigrants.

Can that be done, practically though?

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Authorities would still have to deal with great logistical difficulties even if a US
government could lawfully proceed with ideas for mass deportations.

Under the Biden administration, deportations have concentrated on freshly
arrested border migrants. Most of the migrants deported from further inland in
the US from locations not close to the border are those with criminal histories
or judged national security concerns.

Suspended in 2021 were controversial raids on locations used under the Trump
presidency.

Unlike those at the border, deportations of persons caught in the US interior
have hovered at below 100,000 for a decade, following a high in early years of
the Obama administration.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director of the American Immigration Council,
told the BBC “To raise that, in a single year, up to a million would
require a massive infusion of resources that likely don’t exist.”

First of all, analysts question whether Ice’s 20,000 agents and support staff
would be sufficient to locate and follow even a quarter of the numbers the
Trump campaign is touting.

Mr. Reichlin-Melnick further pointed out that the deportation process is
lengthy and convoluted and starts only with the identification and arrest of an
illegal immigrant.

Following that, inmates would have to be housed or placed on a
“alternative to detention” program before they are presented before
an immigration court inside a system with a years-long backlog.

Then detainees are taken out of the US; this process calls for diplomatic
cooperation from the recipient nation.

“In each of those areas, Ice simply does not have the capacity to process
millions of people,” Mr Reichlin-Melnick remarked.

Trump has declared he would assist with deportations using the National Guard
or other US military personnel.

Historically, the US military’s involvement in immigration concerns has been
restricted to support roles near the US-Mexico border.

Apart from the military and “using local law enforcement,” Trump has
not specifically addressed how such a major deportation scheme could be
executed.

The former president also merely in an interview with Time magazine earlier
this year that he would “not rule out” establishing new migrant
detention camps and that he would move to provide police protection from
prosecution from “the liberal groups or the progressive groups”.

He also mentioned that those who do not “won’t partake in the riches”
and that incentives for state and municipal police organisations to engage
could exist.

“We have to do this,” he insisted. “For our nation, this is not
a sustainable issue.”

Research director Eric Ruark of NumbersUSA, a proponent of stricter immigration
restrictions, argued that any deportation initiative from the interior would
only be successful if combined with more border security.

“That has to take front stage. If that isn’t the case, you’re going to
achieve very little internal development,” he remarked. “That’s what
drives people’s consistent attendance.”

Mr. Ruark also mentioned that it would be essential to concentrate on
businesses employing illegal immigrants.

“They’re coming for work,” he remarked. “And they’re getting
those jobs since internal enforcement has basically been destroyed.”

Getty pictures October 2023 immigrants checking in for a deportation flight to
VenezuelaGetty photos
Even small increases in the number of immigrants taken from the US would call
for major funding and other resources.


The political and budgetary expenses


The
entire cost of one million or more deportations, according to experts, would
run in tens or maybe hundreds of billions of dollars.

In 2023 the Ice budget for deportation and transportation came to $420m
(£327m). That year the government deported somewhat more than 140,000 persons.

While awaiting court hearings or deportations, thousands of immigrants would be
arrested; the Trump campaign has envisioned creating huge camps to keep them
all.

Additionally greatly enlarged would be the number of removal flights, maybe
needing military aircraft to increase present capacity.

Any one of these categories could have major expenses with a minor expansion.

Mr. Reichlin-Melnick stated, “even a minor change is in the tens of
millions, or hundreds of millions.” “A noteworthy shift is in the
tens or hundreds of millions.”

These expenses would be on top of the other border security initiatives Trump
has promised: ongoing construction of a southern US border wall, a naval
blockade to stop fentanyl from entering the US, and deploying thousands of
troops to the border.

From a public relations sense, “nightmarish images” of mass
deportations might potentially cost a possible Trump government politically,
according to migration and border specialist Adam Isacson from the Washington
Office on Latin America.

Every American town would witness people they know and love boarding buses, Mr.
Isacson remarked.

“You would have some quite terrible images on TV of crying children, and
families,” he said. “That is really terrible press all around. Family
separation; but, on steroids.”


Have mass deportations ever occurred?

About
1.5 million people were deported under the four years of the former Trump
government from the US interior as well as the border.

Statistics indicate the Biden government, which had deported almost 1.1 million
people up until February 2024, is on target to match that.

More than three million people were deported during the two Obama terms, while
Mr Biden was vice-president, which led some proponents of immigration reform to
label Barack Obama the “deporter-in-chief”.

The only historical analogy to a mass deportation campaign happened in 1954,
when Operation Wetback—named for a disparaging epithet then usually used
against Mexican citizens—sent as many as 1.3 million people backcountry.

Historians disagree with that statistic, though.

Under President Dwight Eisenhower, the program faced significant public
opposition as well as financial constraints and some US citizens were also
deported. It was basically dropped by 1955.

Experts on immigration claim that the previous operation’s emphasis on Mexican
nationals and lack of due process makes it unlike what a contemporary mass
deportation campaign would look like.

“Those [deported in the 1950s] were single, Mexican men,” said
Kathleen Bush-Joseph of MPI.

“Today, most persons arriving between ports of entrance come from
locations outside of Mexico, or perhaps northern Central America. Returning
them is far more difficult, she said.

“Those are not comparable scenarios.”

Why might coffee improve your health?

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Coffee used to be linked in former times to higher health hazards. However, studies published in the past ten years indicate that coffee drinking can even improve your health.

Among psychoactive drugs, caffeine is the most often used one worldwide. For millennia, people have been sipping coffee, a natural source of caffeine; nevertheless, for decades there have been conflicting opinions regarding its impact on human health.

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“Traditionally, coffee has been seen as a bad thing,” says Marc Gunter, Imperial College London’s cancer epidemiologist and past head of the area of nutrition and metabolism at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC). “Research from the 1980s and 90s concluded that people who drank coffee had a higher risk of cardiovascular disease; but, it’s evolved since then.”

Gunter notes that scientists now have data from hundreds of thousands of coffee-drinkers as more, more extensive population studies starting over the past decade surface. What does the research reveal, though, and is coffee use either posing hazards or health advantages?

Because it includes acrylamide, a carcinogen present in foods such toast, cakes and chips, coffee has been linked with a higher risk of cancer. The IARC came to the conclusion in 2016, nonetheless, that coffee is not carcinogenic unless consumed extremely hot, above 65C (149F). Researchers in a 2023 review contend that although coffee is one of the main causes of acrylamide in our diets, there is not yet a robust, clear evidence foundation demonstrating how it relates to cancer risk.

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The possible medical advantages of coffee drinking

Moreover, numerous studies have indicated that coffee could possibly have a protective impact. For instance, several studies have found a relationship between coffee intake and a reduced risk of various cancers in individuals.

Gunter released the findings of a study examining half a million individuals’s coffee-drinking patterns over sixteen years throughout Europe in 2017. Coffee drinkers ran less risk of dying from cancer, stroke, and heart disease. These results line up with studies conducted elsewhere, including the US, and more recent UK study as well.

Based on observational studies, Gunter claims there is enough agreement to validate that those who consume up to four cups of coffee daily have less ailments than those who abstain from.

The possible advantages of coffee could stretch further. Gunter’s study found that coffee-drinkers had worse diets and were more likely to smoke than non-coffee drinkers. This would imply that, should coffee reduce the risk of cancer and heart disease, it may be more potent than we would have imagined, therefore negating the influence of bad habits.

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That is true whether you have caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee. Research indicates that decaf coffee has comparable levels of antioxidants than regular coffee. Gunter concluded that the health advantages connected with coffee are attributable to something else than caffeine as he observed in his studies no variations between the health of people who drank caffeinated versus decaf.

Why do we not truly understand how coffee influences our health?

All of this study, meanwhile, was grounded in demographic data, which does not establish cause and effect.

Coffee drinkers could just have better underlying health than those who decide against drinking it.

Coffee drinkers could just have better underlying health than those who choose not to, claims Peter Rogers, a University of Bristol researcher on the impact of caffeine on behavior, mood, alertness and attention. That is in spite of their less healthy living choices, as Gunter’s studies reveal.

“Some people suggested there might be a protective effect, which is somewhat controversial as it’s based on population evidence,” he explains.

Regular coffee drinkers also typically have greater blood pressure, which should raise their risk of cardiovascular disease. Rogers notes, though, there is no data linking increased blood pressure from coffee use to increased risk of cardiovascular disease.

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Rarer than population studies are clinical trials looking at coffee, which could better ascertain its advantages and drawbacks. One experiment, however, was carried out by a group of academics where they watched how consuming caffeinated coffee affected blood sugar.

Under the direction of England’s University of Bath’s Centre for Nutrition Exercise and Metabolism, the tiny study examined how coffee alters the body’s reaction to breakfast following a broken night’s sleep. Participants who had coffee, then a sugary drink in place of breakfast, had a 50% increase in blood sugar when compared to when they skipped coffee before “breakfast”.

Still, for the risk to mount, this kind of behavior must occur often over time.

Gettyimages It’s hard to tell exactly how laboratory research relates to everyday life. Credit: Getty Images.Getty Photographs

It’s hard to determine exactly how laboratory research relates to actual life (Credit: Getty Images).

Indicating that neither population, nor lab research can offer conclusive answers on how coffee influences human health, putting people into laboratory environments also raises the issue of how relevant the results are to real life.

Can coffee make a miscarriage more likely?

Advice on how much caffeine one should drink is especially perplexing during pregnancy. Coffee intake both before and throughout pregnancy has been linked, according one 2022 assessment of data, to misscarriage. The researchers argue, however, that given their focus on population studies, there could be other reasons for the observed correlation between coffee intake and pregnancy loss. For instance, smoking is linked to coffee intake, they report, and is well known to raise misscarriage risk.

Reviewing 380 studies, dietician Esther Myers, chief executive of EF Myers Consulting, came to the conclusion that four cups of coffee daily for adults and three for pregnant women shouldn’t cause any negative consequences.

Pregnant and nursing women should not have more than one to two cups of coffee daily, the Food Standard Agency counsels. Based on earlier research, pregnant women should completely avoid coffee in order to lower their stillbirth, low birth weight, and miscarriage risk.

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Economist Emily Oster, author of the book Expecting Better, which examines the facts on pregnancy advice, also discovered conflicting direction about coffee.

“The major worry is the possibility that caffeine intake links to miscarriage, especially in the first three months,” she explains.

She does, however, note that there is not much randomised evidence on this and that inferences from observational data are unreliable.

“Women who sip coffee during pregnancy are more likely to smoke and are probably older. We know that greater rates of miscarriage are causally related to age and tobacco use,” she notes.

“The second concern is that early pregnancy’s nauseated ladies are less likely to miscarry. Many women who experience nausea and avoid coffee are less likely to miscarry since it’s the kind of item that irritates you if you’re already feeling bad.”

Coffee consumption has no net benefit for our capacity to operate effectively as we grow resistant to its effects – Peter Rogers

Two to four cups of coffee a day, Oster notes, seem unrelated to a higher risk of miscarriage.

And regarding caffeine addiction?

Apart from the possible consequences on heart health, cancer, and miscarriage, coffee affects the brain and nervous system as well. Considered a psychotropic substance, caffeine influences our cognition.

While some members of the general public drink caffeinated coffee all day long, others start to get nervous after one cup. Studies have shown that variations in our DNA can influence how differently two people absorb caffeine. Myers contends, however, “we don’t understand why one person is perfectly fine with a level of caffeine and another person is not”.

For frequent drinkers, meantime, there is bad news for those who sip coffee to increase focus.

Rogers states “as the body gets used to receiving caffeine on a daily basis, there are physiological changes that adapt the body to live with caffeine and maintain normal function.” “Consuming coffee generates no net benefit to our ability to work efficiently because we become tolerant to that effect; but, as long as you keep consuming it, you’re probably not worse off.”

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He argues, the only people who could benefit from caffeine are those who do not drink it consistently.

On the other side of the spectrum, many people jest about being coffee addicts. Generally speaking, though, they are just dependant, claims Rogers.

“There’s a low risk of addiction to caffeine – if you take it away from someone, they don’t feel great but they’re not strongly craving it,” he notes.

He argues coffee shows the difference between dependency, in which the user’s cognitive ability is compromised but they do not go to great measures to get the drug, and addiction, in which the user is driven to get the substance.

He thinks the only thing coffee consumers need be conscious of is withdrawal. ” Anyone who consumes a couple daily cups of coffee depends on caffeine. They would be fatigued and might perhaps have a headache if you took their coffee away, Rogers notes.

Though they often last three days or a week, he explains, these symptoms depend on the amount of coffee the individual was consuming; so, caffeine is the only thing likely to help.

Does the sort of coffee count?

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Whether you carefully prepare your coffee from bean to cup or toss some instant powder into a mug, your method of brewing it seems to have little bearing on the connection with greater health. Gunter discovered by researching people all throughout Europe that different kinds of coffee still had health advantages.

“People drank a smaller espresso in Italy and Spain; in northern Europe, people drank more instant coffee and larger volumes of coffee,” notes Gunter. “We looked at many kinds of coffee and saw consistent results across counties, which suggests it’s not about types of coffee but coffee-drinking per se.”

Still, researchers from a 2018 study revealed that the association between coffee and lifespan was stronger for ground coffee than for instant or decaf; although these were still shown to be healthier than not drinking any coffee at all. The gap, the study notes, could be due to quick coffees having less bioactive chemicals, particularly polyphenols, well-known for their anti-inflammatory action.

All varieties of coffee, including decaffeinated, instant and ground, are linked, according a 2021 population study, to a lower risk of chronic liver disease. In another 2022 study, however, researchers discovered that although these three varieties of coffee were all related to lower levels of cardiovascular disease and death, two to three cups of decaf coffee daily had the largest drop in risk of death from all causes.

Gunter says the available, current data indicates drinking up to four cups of coffee a day could offer health benefits, including reduced risk of heart disease and cancer, even as it might not get you through a hectic day at work.

“It’s common sense that if you drink too much of anything it’s probably not good for you; but, there’s no strong evidence that drinking a few cups a day is bad for health.” he says. ” If anything, it’s the opposite.”

The Véloroute Gourmande: Canada’s mouthwatering 235 km culinary path

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For China, Middle East, and Ukraine, what does Trump’s victory mean?For China, Middle East, and Ukraine, what does Trump’s victory mean?

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With violence and instability engulfing portions of the globe, Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises perhaps dramatic changes on several fronts, so transforming US foreign policy.

Based on ideas of non-interventionism and trade protectionism, sometimes without particular details, Trump made broad policy pledges during his campaign – or as he puts it “America First”.

In the middle of concurrent crises, his triumph marks one of the most important possible upheavals in Washington’s foreign policy over many years.

From his remarks on the campaign trail and his track record in office from 2017 to 2021, we can put parts of his anticipated approach to various regions together.

Track real-time election day developments as Trump triumphs.

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Whichever state each voted for?

Examining why the US granted Trump another opportunity
He takes office as US president when?
Now, what becomes of Trump’s legal cases?
Though it’s unclear how far the former advisers’ paper reflects Trump’s own ideas, it will probably provide some direction on the kind of counsel he should obtain.

Originally established as a barrier against the Soviet Union, his “America First” approach to ending the conflict also addresses the geopolitical question of the future of NATO, the transatlantic all-for-one and one-for-all military alliance built up following World conflict Two.

Reuters is Amid Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, a homeowner checks his apartment building hit by a Russian drone strike in the town of Krasylivka, Chernihiv area, Ukraine, 3 November 2024.REuters
In February 2022 Russia started a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Now numbering thirty-two countries, Trump has long been a critic of the alliance, charging Europe of free-riding on America’s offer of protection.

Still up for contention is whether he would really pull the US out of NATO, therefore indicating the most dramatic change in transatlantic defense relations in almost a century.

Some of his supporters claim his strict policies are only a negotiation ploy meant to compel

members to follow alliance defense expenditure policies.

The truth is, though, NATO officials will be particularly concerned about how his triumph would affect the alliance’s future and about how unfriendly leaders view its deterrent power.

Middle Eastern history

As with Ukraine, Trump has promised to bring “peace” to the Middle East – indicating he would stop the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon – but he has not stated just how.

According to him, Hamas would not have attacked Israel if he had been in office instead of Joe Biden because of his “maximum pressure” strategy on Iran, which supports the group.

Broadly, Trump would probably want to go back to the approach, which saw his government withdraw the US out of the Iran nuclear agreement, apply more sanctions against Iran and murder Gen Qasem Soleimani – Iran’s most formidable military commander.

Strongly pro-Israel measures were passed by Trump in the White House, designating Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and shifting the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, so energising Trump’s Christian evangelical constituency, a fundamental Republican voter base.

Calling Trump the “best friend Israel has ever had in the White House,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Critics counter his approach had a destabilising impact on the area.

Washington’s denial of their claim to Jerusalem, the city that forms the historical center of national and religious life for Palestinians, led the Palestinians to boycott the Trump administration.

Views of US elections by Israelis and Palestinians
US requests a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
Their isolation grew even more pronounced when Trump mediated the so-called “Abraham Accords,” which resulted in a historic agreement normalizing diplomatic relations between Israel and numerous Arab and Muslim nations. Previously a prerequisite of Arab nations for such a regional deal, they accomplished this without Israel having to accept a future independent Palestinian state alongside it – the so-called two-state solution.

Instead of recognition of Israel, the nations engaged were granted access to superior US weaponry in return.

The
only power that can truly apply leverage to both sides in the conflict put the
Palestinians at one of the most isolated times in their history, therefore
undermining their capacity as seen from the ground.

During the campaign, Trump expressed multiple remarks declaring he wanted the
fighting in Gaza to stop.

Though he has had a complicated, perhaps dysfunctional relationship with
Netanyahu, he most definitely has the power to press him.

He also has close ties to leaders of the important Arab nations who interact
with Hamas.

It’s unknown how he would balance seeking to end the war with his want to
display great support for the Israeli government.

Although Trump’s backers have often presented his erratic behavior as a
diplomatic advantage, it is difficult to see how this would play out in the
highly divided and unstable Middle East amid a crisis already of historical
proportions.

Trump will have to determine how – or whether – to progress the halted
diplomatic process started by the Biden administration to get a Gaza truce in
return for the release of the captives kept by Hamas.


Trade and China


America’s
approach to China is its most strategically significant foreign policy one,
with most effects on commerce and world security.

Trump declared China a “strategic competitor” while in office and
levies taxes on some Chinese shipments into the US. Beijing started
tit-for–tat tariffs on American products in response.

Although attempts were made to defuse the trade conflict, the Covid epidemic
eliminated this prospect, and relations deteriorated as the former president
called Covid a “Chinese virus”.

Although the Biden administration promised to approach China policy more
responsibly, it did in fact maintain many of the Trump-era tariffs on imports.



What US Chinese citizens desire?


Though much of the long-term jobs decline in traditional US industries like steel have been as much about factory automation and production changes as global competitiveness and offshoring, the trade policy has become tightly linked to domestic voter perceptions in the US about protecting American manufacturing jobs.

Trump has hailed Chinese President Xi Jinping as both “brilliant” and “dangerous,” a highly successful leader wielding a “iron fist” over 1.4 billion people—a reflection of what critics labeled as Trump’s respect for “dictators.”

In an effort to limit China, the former president most certainly will veer from the Biden administration’s strategy of forging closer US security alliances with other regional nations.

China regards as a renegade colony under ultimate sovereignty, the US has maintained military support for self-ruled Taiwan.

Trump declared in October that he would not have to use military action to stop a Chinese blockade of Taiwan should he return to the White House since President Xi knew he was “[expletive] crazy” and would apply paralysing tariffs on Chinese goods should that occur.







US polls on elections: Harris or Trump is ahead?

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Although nationwide polls are a good indicator of a candidate’s general popularity across the nation, they are not the best means to forecast the outcome of the election.

On Tuesday, US voters get to vote for their next president.

Originally a mirror image of 2020, the election was disrupted in July when President Joe Biden dropped his campaign and supported Vice-President Kamala Harris.

Now the major question is whether America will have a second Donald Trump administration or a first female presidency.

Watch live election updates.

About election night, all you need to know.

We shall know who has won when?

Who is spearheading national surveys?

Since Harris entered the race at the end of July, she has enjoyed a little lead over Trump in the national polling averages; she still leads as seen on the chart below with the most recent statistics rounded to the closest whole number.

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19298662/embed?auto=1

Although nationwide polls are a good indicator of a candidate’s general popularity throughout the nation, they are not the best means to forecast the outcome of the election.

That’s so because the US has an electoral college system whereby every state receives a number of votes generally commensurate with its population. There are 538 electoral college votes overall on offer, hence a contender must score 270 to be successful.

https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/19298662/embed?auto=1

Though most of the 50 states in the US almost usually vote for the same party, in actuality just a few where both candidates have a chance of winning. Known as battleground states or swing states, these are the venues where the election will be won and lost.

The electoral college: what is it?
Path to 270: The states Obama and Trump must prevail.
Swing state polls: who is winning?
From looking at the polling averages, it is impossible to determine who is truly ahead as the leads in the swing states are now so modest.

It’s crucial to bear this in mind when reviewing the figures below since polls are meant to generally convey public opinion on a candidate or subject, not project the outcome of an election by less than a percentage point.

Remember also that the individual polls used to derive these averages have a margin of error of roughly three to four percentage points, hence either candidate could be performing better or worse than the figures now indicate.

Trump and Harris Neck and Neck as Millions Get Ready for US Election

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The American political scene is ready for an unparalleled confrontation. Millions of people ready to vote make the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris a gripping one. This suggests what the United States’ future holds. In a nation so profoundly split, can one side assert a clear triumph? Let’s separate the dynamics involved in this high-stakes race.

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Choosing the Future: The Battleground States


Why Swing States Matter

Once more under focus are swing states, the perennial decider of American elections. States like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Arizona might tip the scales in this extremely close contest. These states have traditionally alternated between red and blue; this year is no different.

Ground Game and tactics
Both campaigns are drawing on all the tools. From strong ground games to intensive digital outreach, Trump and Harris are galvanizing their bases unlike anything else. Advertisements flood social media, and volunteers flood communities. The intensity is tangible; every tweet and handshake might change the result.

Important Problems Affecting Voter Opinion: A Two-Edged Blade for the Economy
Though always a major concern, the economy serves two purposes. While Harris emphasizes support for middle-class and lower-income Americans, Trump supports his former actions by pointing pre-pandemic economic highs.

Social Policies and Healthcare:
Still the pillar of concern is healthcare. With an eye toward building on current systems, Harris supports increasing healthcare access. Trump’s posture, meantime, promises a more privatized healthcare approach and leans toward destroying federal overreach. Voters find great resonance in these opposing points of view, which fuels heated debate on healthcare.

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Media’s and public opinion’s impact


Media Framing and Biases
In a time when media consumption impacts opinions, both candidates are under close examination via several prism. Conservative sources band together around Trump, presenting him as a consistent leader. Liberals, on the other hand, highlight Harris as a progressive trailblazer. The resulting stories create echo chambers, so complicating efforts for voters looking for accurate information.

The Way Social Media Shapes Views
Social media channels are part of the battleground as well; hashtags and viral postings have great power. Memes, videos, and arguments multiply and reach millions right away. Every word and picture in this area is a tool, ready to inspire allies or turn off fence-sitters.

Voter concerns and election integrity
Anxiety over Election Interference
Issues of electoral integrity loom big. From claims of overseas interference to discussions on mail-in voting security, the public is on edge. Both sides stress alertness and advise their bases to keep informed and involved.

Voter Turnout: The Ultimate Decider
Given both groups stressing the value of every vote, high voter turnout is expected. The story is unambiguous: the result of the nation’s actual will is more reflecting the higher the turnout. Grassroots campaigns seek to make sure that logistical difficulties do not exclude any voter.

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Looking ahead: What stands at risk?


Consequences for Residential Policy
A win for either candidate will surely change the domestic scene of the United States for years ahead. While Trump might support conservative ideas, Harris could introduce progressive changes, therefore defining different paths for the country.

Viewpoints Globally and Foreign Policy
Watching closely the election transcends American boundaries. Both friends and foes expect changes in foreign policy. While Trump might keep his America-first posture, Harris could bring back multilateralism. The world is waiting for us knowing that American leadership has international consequences.

In essence, a nation on the brink of decision.
The stakes are not lower as millions get ready to vote. Although it illustrates the vitality of American democracy, the neck-and-neck contest between Trump and Harris reflects the ingrained differences. About to be answered are the first questions: who will govern the country and what course it will follow? One thing is certain as the last ballots are tallied: the voters of America will shape her future.


Spain Floods Death Count Rising to 158 as Search and Rescue Efforts Target Survivors

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Though natural calamities have wre havoc all around, recent events in Spain have been especially disastrous. Along with thousands of others being relocated, severe flooding over several areas has sadly claimed at least 158 lives. Examining the effects on communities, current rescue operations, the causes of these catastrophic floods, and how Spain and international partners are handling the issue, this paper explores the developing scenario.

Spain’s Flood Crisis Escalating Situation

Unprecedented rainfall that struck already vulnerable areas to natural disasters rapidly raised the intensity of the floods in Spain, particularly around the Valencia and Murcia districts. Originally a seasonally forecast rainfall, what developed into torrential downpours that turned rivers into roaring currents surpassing dikes and overflowed banks. The flood of water has swamped towns all across southern and eastern Spain, surprising many and resulting in property and death losses.

Events Timeline: How the Floods Played Out
Though few expected the extent of the deluge that followed, meteorological authorities had issued warnings of possible severe rain.
First Impact: Mostly hitting metropolitan areas and coastal regions, heavy rain started in mid-October. Late October brought disastrous amounts of flooding.
Peak floods: The floods overwhelmed emergency services in some locations getting record-breaking rains within a matter of hours, therefore requiring extensive evacuations.
Reasons Behind Spain’s Extreme Flooding

One must first know the elements causing these disastrous floods. Many important factors combined to make a normal rainstorm a lethal occurrence:

1. Unbreakable Rainfall

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With some areas getting up to 500mm of rain in less than 48 hours, Spain saw one of the biggest rains records in recent years. The enormous weight of water overloaded drainage systems, hence flash flooding was inevitable.

For
2. Effects of Climate Change

Although Spain is not unusual for heavy rain, climate change has brought
increasingly frequent and strong storms. Rising evaporation brought on by
warmer temperatures results in more moisture in the atmosphere and eventually
heavier rainfalls. In Spain, this shifting temperature is causing less
predictable but more powerful storms.

Three. Geographic Weakness

Low-lying areas like Valencia and Murción have long been prone to flooding.
High population density combined with inadequate flood-preventing
infrastructure rendered these communities especially vulnerable.

In 4. Urbanisation Without Enough Watering

In southern and coastal regions of Spain, fast urbanisation has exceeded the
growth in necessary drainage systems. Stormwater builds rapidly in concrete and
asphalt-preventing natural absorption, hence increasing flood risks.

#image_title


Areas hardest hit by Spain’s flooding
Valencia:

Valencia witnessed whole neighbourhoods buried as one of the first areas affected by the floods. The overflowing rivers of the area caused great disturbance and mass exodus. Roads and bridges were washed away, and thousands of people suffered from power cuts.

Murça

Murción, well-known for its agricultural output, had decimated crops and land, with consequences for the ecology as well as the economy. The agriculture sector suffered major losses, and tainted water supplies compounded resident suffering.

Andalusia.

Andalusia, especially along coastlines, also suffered most from floods. Street submerged from heavy rain caught people in homes and cars. Declaring a state of emergency, the Andalusian government set all resources at use for relief and rescue campaigns.



The Effect on Infrastructure and Communities



The toll of the flood goes beyond only lives lost; whole towns have been rocked. Roads, hospitals, and communication networks among other infrastructure have been severely disrupted, complicating rescue and recovery efforts.

Damage to Houses and Property

Thousands of houses were demolished, leaving their occupants without place and in great need of cover. Expected damages of millions of euros mean that insurance claims will explode.

Travel Interferes

Important rail connections and major roadways between eastern and southern Spain have either been inundated or damaged, therefore restricting vital means of transportation. To further add to the turmoil, airports in waterlogged areas were also obliged to call off flights.

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Medical Pressure

Though limited access and power outages have impeded their work, hospitals in impacted areas are working at full capacity to treat the injured. Set up to handle the flood of patients requiring treatment are temporary field hospitals.

Rescue Efforts: Saving Lives among Disorder

Emergency personnel are working nonstop among the debris to maximise the number of lives saved. The deluge has taxed Spain’s emergency resources, and foreign help has been sought to support rescue efforts.

National Emergency Reactivity

The government of Spain sent more than 5,000 emergency responders to support rescue and recovery activities. People caught in flooded areas have been reached with helicopters, boats, and specially designed rescue squads. Drones are now being used by authorities to find missing people in once unreachable places.

Efforts Supported by Communities

Local communities have showed incredible resiliency as people offer their time to assist others in need. Emphasising the unity that has grown among the disaster, neighbours have gathered to give food, clothing, and shelter for people displaced by the floods.

Global Aid

Many European countries have provided funds, relief supplies, and extra rescue teams as well as support to help with reconstruction projects. To organise and provide Spain with necessary relief, the European Union has set off its Civil Protection Mechanism.

financial consequences of Spain’s floods


This calamity will have a financial effect felt all throughout Spain; recovery operations will call for billions of euros. Among the industries most negatively impacted are infrastructure, tourism, and agriculture; reconstruction will take time.

Agricultural Decline

Crops have been destroyed in Murcia and other agricultural areas, therefore influencing local food supplies as well as export earnings. A major part of Spain’s economy, the agriculture industry currently has a protracted recovery time.

Lost Tourism

Popular tourist spots in Andalusia and Valencia saw cancellements as infrastructural damage discouraged tourism. Since Spain mostly depends on tourism, these cancellements will have long-lasting consequences on the national economy.

Government Spending on Repairing Infrastructure

With most of the budget set for infrastructure restoration, the Spanish government is distributing emergency money to help with recovery. According to economic experts, the rebuilding of these areas will require more European Union money.

Future Flood Prevention: Actions Spain Needs to Take

While Spain struggles with this terrible natural calamity, issues regarding future flood control surface. New policies to prevent like events in the future are already in preparation by authorities.

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Better drainage systems

Improving drainage systems in sensitive regions will be among the first things done right away. This covers creating bigger and more effective drainage systems able to manage higher water levels.

Funding for Flood Protection

In high-risk areas, building reservoirs, barriers, and other flood defence mechanisms will be very vital. Investing in advanced flood control technologies will probably help Spain to emulate other European nations.

Zoning Change and Urban Planning

One must have urban design considering flood hazards. Changes in zoning rules will help to lessen building in sensitive areas, especially low-lying places where flooding is a regular occurrence.

Climate Change Resilience

With nationwide plans to incorporate weather-resistant infrastructure and early-warning systems to notify citizens to possible flooding in advance, Spain’s government is giving more and more importance on climate change preparedness.

Final Thought: A National Tragedy With Future Lessons

Claiming the lives of 158 people and leaving a trail of damage, the catastrophic floods in Spain have presented hitherto unheard-of obstacles. Spain has long-term preventative objectives as well as immediate rehabilitation needs as it keeps looking for survivors and helping people affected. The current tragedy emphasises how urgently sustainable solutions for climate adaption and flood control are needed.

Spain Floods Death Toll Rises to 158 as Rescuers Comb for Survivors. Through resilience, community togetherness, and improved infrastructure Spain is primed to rebuild stronger and better ready for future difficulties.

Though natural calamities have wre havoc all around, recent events in Spain have been especially disastrous. Along with thousands of others being relocated, severe flooding over several areas has sadly claimed at least 158 lives. Examining the effects on communities, current rescue operations, the causes of these catastrophic floods, and how Spain and international partners are handling the issue, this paper explores the developing scenario.


Spain’s Flood Crisis Escalating Situation

Unprecedented rainfall that struck already vulnerable areas to natural disasters rapidly raised the intensity of the floods in Spain, particularly around the Valencia and Murcia districts. Originally a seasonally forecast rainfall, what developed into torrential downpours that turned rivers into roaring currents surpassing dikes and overflowed banks. The flood of water has swamped communities all around southern and eastern Spain, surprising many and causing property and lives damage.


Events Timeline: How the Floods Played Out

Although meteorological authorities had issued warnings of possible heavy rain, few expected the degree of the deluge that later developed.

First Impact: Mostly hitting metropolitan areas and coastal regions, heavy rain started in mid-October. Late October brought disastrous amounts of flooding.

Peak floods: The floods swamped emergency services and required major-scale evacuations in certain locations experiencing record-breaking rains in a few hours.

Reasons for Spain’s severe flooding


One must first know the elements causing these disastrous floods. Many important factors combined to make a normal rainstorm a lethal occurrence:

#image_title

One: Unbreakable Rainfall

With some areas getting up to 500mm of rain in less than 48 hours, Spain saw one of the biggest rains records in recent years. Flash flooding was inevitable given the sheer volume of water overwhelming drainage infrastructure.




2. Effects of Climate Change

Although Spain is not unusual for heavy rain, climate change has brought increasingly frequent and strong storms. Rising evaporation brought on by warmer temperatures results in more moisture in the atmosphere and eventually heavier rainfalls. Storms striking Spain are both more intense and less predictable due to this shifting temperature.




The third is Geographic Weakness

Low-lying areas like Valencia and Murción have long been prone to flooding. High population density combined with inadequate flood-preventing infrastructure rendered these places especially vulnerable.




The fourth is Urbanisation Without Enough Watering

In southern and coastal regions of Spain, fast urbanisation has exceeded the growth in necessary drainage systems. Stormwater builds rapidly when concrete and asphalt stop natural absorption, increasing flood hazards.




Areas hardest hit by Spain’s flooding

Valuza

Valencia witnessed whole neighbourhoods buried as one of the first areas affected by the floods. The overflowing rivers of the area caused great disturbance and mass exodus. Roads and bridges were washed away, and many thousands of people suffered power outages.




Murça

Murción, well-known for its agricultural output, had decimated crops and land, with consequences for the ecology as well as the economy. The agriculture industry suffered great losses, and tainted water supplies compounded resident suffering.




Andalusia also

Andalusia, especially along coastlines, also suffered most from floods. Street submerged from heavy rain caught people in homes and cars. Declaring a state of emergency, the Andalusian government set all available resources for rescue and relief operations active.




The Effect on Infrastructure and Communities

The toll of the flood goes beyond only lives lost; whole towns have been rocked. Roads, hospitals, and communication systems among other infrastructure have been severely disrupted, which complicates rescue and recovery efforts.




Property Damage and Homes

Thousands of houses were demolished, leaving their occupants without place and in great need of cover. With predicted damages in millions of euros, insurance claims are expected to explode.




Transportation Interfections

Important rail connections and major roadways between eastern and southern Spain have either been inundated or damaged, therefore restricting vital means of transportation. To further add to the turmoil, airports in waterlogged areas were also obliged to call off flights.




Strain in Healthcare

Though limited access and power outages have impeded their work, hospitals in impacted areas are working at full capacity to treat the injured. Set up to handle the flood of patients requiring treatment are temporary field hospitals.




Rescue Efforts: Saving Lives among Disorder

Emergency personnel are working nonstop among the debris to maximise the number of lives saved. The flood has taxed Spain’s emergency services, hence foreign help has been sought to support rescue operations.




national emergency response

The government of Spain sent more than 5,000 emergency responders to support rescue and recovery activities. People caught in flooded areas have been reached with helicopters, boats, and specially designed rescue squads. Drones are increasingly being used by authorities to find missing people in once unreachable locations.




Efforts Under Community Leadership

Local communities have showed incredible resiliency as people offer their time to assist others in need. Emphasising the unity that has grown among the catastrophe, neighbours have gathered to offer food, clothes, and shelter for those displaced by the floods.




Foreign Assistance

Many European countries have provided funds, relief supplies, and extra rescue teams as well as support to help with reconstruction projects. The European Union has turned on its Civil Protection Mechanism to organise and provide Spain with necessary relief.




Spain’s Floods: Economic Consequences

This calamity will have a financial effect felt all throughout Spain; recovery operations will call for billions of euros. Among the industries most negatively impacted are infrastructure, tourism, and agriculture; reconstruction will take time.




Agricultural Reversals

Crops have been destroyed in Murcia and other agricultural areas, therefore influencing local food supplies as well as export earnings. A major part of Spain’s economy, the agriculture industry currently has a protracted recovery time.




Travel Damage Losses

Popular tourist spots in Andalusia and Valencia saw cancellements as infrastructural damage discouraged tourism. Spain depends mostly on tourism, hence these cancellements will have long-lasting consequences for the national economy.




Government Spending on Repair

With most of the budget set for infrastructure restoration, the Spanish government is distributing emergency money to help with recovery. Economic experts believe that complete rebuilding of these areas will require more European Union investment.




Future Flood Prevention: Actions Spain Needs to Take

While Spain struggles with this terrible natural calamity, issues regarding future flood control surface. Authorities already have fresh policies under development to prevent such future calamities.




Enhanced Drainage Mechanisms

Improving drainage systems in sensitive regions will be among the first things done right away. This covers designing bigger and more effective drainage systems able to manage rising water levels.




Funding Flood Safety Measures

In high-risk areas, building reservoirs, barriers, and other flood defence mechanisms will be very vital. By funding advanced flood control technologies, Spain is probably going to adopt the pattern of other European nations.




Urban design and zoning changes

One must have urban design considering flood hazards. Changes in zoning rules will help to lower building in sensitive locations, especially low-lying places where flooding is a regular occurrence.




Adaptability for Climate Change

With national plans to include weather-resistant infrastructure and early-warning systems to notify citizens to possible flooding in advance, Spain’s government is giving more and more importance on climate change preparedness.




Final Thought: A National Tragedy With Future Lessons

Claiming the lives of 158 people and leaving a trail of damage, the catastrophic floods in Spain have presented hitherto unheard-of obstacles. Spain has long-term preventative objectives as well as immediate rehabilitation needs as it keeps looking for survivors and helping people affected. The current calamity emphasises how urgently sustainable solutions for climate adaption and flood control are needed.




By means of resilience, community cohesion, and improved infrastructure, Spain is positioned to reconstruct stronger and better equipped for next difficulties.







Iran must make difficult decisions between looking weak and running the danger of escalation.

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Israel’s attack on Iran extends the Middle Eastern conflict. Decisions being decided by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his key advisers center on avoiding, or risking, an even worse escalation.

They have to choose from a set of challenging decisions the least worst of which. One extreme of the spectrum is rebuffing with another blast of ballistic missiles. Israel has already pledged to respond once more should that occur.

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At the other end is choosing to draw a line under the damaging direct strikes on their individual regions. If Iran keeps its firing, it runs the danger of seeming weak, terrified and discouraged by Israel’s military might and political will supported by the United States.

Ultimately, the supreme leader and his supporters are probably going to decide that, from their perspective, does least damage to the viability of Iran’s Islamic government.

Empty vows?
Officially, Iran’s media in the hours before and following Israel’s strikes expressed rebellious remarks implying, at face value, the choice to react had already been determined. Emphasizing its right to protect itself against assault, its discourse sounds like Israel’s. The risks are so great, though, that Iran might choose to retract her threats.


Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who joined in behind America’s claim that Israel has acted in self-defence, hopes this.

“I am clear that Israel has the right to defend itself against Iranian aggression,” he remarked. “I am also clear that we must stop more regional escalation and exhort all sides to use moderation. Iran ought not to react.”

From its ballistic missile on Israel on October 1, Iran’s own remarks have been consistent. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi informed Turkey’s NTV channel one week ago that “any attack on Iran will be considered crossing a red line for us.” Such an attack won’t go unpackled.

“Any aggression by the Israeli regime against Iran will be met with full force,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai declared hours before the Israeli assaults. To propose that Iran would not react to a modest Israeli attack, he added, “highly misleading and baseless”.

Iran’s foreign ministry asserted its right to self-defense “as ingrained in Article 51 of the UN Charter” as the Israeli aircraft were returning to base. Iran claimed it was both entitled and required to react to foreign acts of hostility.

Tragic interactions

Israel determined the rate of escalation starting in the spring. It regards Iran as
the major supporter of the Hamas strikes on 7 October last year that claimed
over 1,200 lives – Israelis and more than 70 foreign persons. Iran consistently
indicated it did not desire a full-scale war with Israel, fearing Israel was
searching for an opportunity for attack.

That did not mean it was ready to halt its relentless, often lethal lower-level
pressure on Israel and her friends.

The men of Tehran felt they had a better concept than all-out war. Rather, Iran
attacked Israel via the friends and proxies under its claimed “axis of
resistance”. The Houthis in Yemen stopped and wrecked Red Sea commerce.
From their homes, at least 60,000 Israelis were driven by Hezbollah rocket fire
from Lebanon.

Six months into the war, Israel’s reprisal drove maybe twice as many Lebanese
from their southern homes, but Israel was ready to do far more. It threatened
to respond should Hezbollah fail to hold its fire into Israel and withdraw from
the border.

Israel opted to break out from a battlefield molded by Iran’s limited, but
attritional war when that did not materialize. It delivered a sequence of
forceful blows that put Tehran’s Islamic government off balance and destroyed
its whole plan. That is why Iranian officials only have difficult decisions
following the most recent Israeli strikes.

Israel raised the pressure on Iran and its axis since Israel saw Iran’s
resistance to fight an all-out war as weakness. Israel’s commanders and
Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister, could afford to take chances. They had
President Joe Biden’s unambiguous support, a safety net shaped not only in
terms of large weaponry shipments but also in line with his choice to send
major American sea and air reinforcements to the Middle East to bolster US
dedication to defend Israel.

An Israeli airstrike on April 1 wrecked some of Iran’s diplomatic facility in
Damascus, the capital of Syria. Along with other prominent Irani officials from
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it executed Brig Gen Mohammed
Reza Zahedi, a major leader.

The Americans were incensed because they had not received warning or time to
activate their own troops. But Joe Biden’s backing did not change when Israel
paid for its crimes. Iran targeted with drones, cruise and ballistic missiles
on April 13. With significant assistance from military forces of the US, UK,
France, and Jordan, most were destroyed by Israel’s defenses.

Presumably attempting to avert what had become the most perilous moment in the
Middle East conflict, Biden begged Israel to “take the win.” Biden’s
strategy appeared to be working when Israel limited its reaction to a hit on an
air defense site.

Israel has steadily increased the battle with Iran and its axis of friends and
proxies, however, since summer. The most significant hits came from a military
attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran’s most crucial partner. As a main
component of its advance defense, Iran had spent years arming Hezbollah with a
vast array of weapons. Knowing Hezbollah would smash Israel from just over the
border in Lebanon would discourage an Israeli strike on Iran.

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Israel, however, moved first, following strategies it had created since Hezbollah battled it to a standstill in the 2006 war. It blew up booby trapped pagers and walkie talkies it had misled Hezbollah into purchasing, invaded south Lebanon and assassinated Hezbollah’s leader Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah, a man who had been a symbol of relentless opposition to Israel for decades. According to Beirut’s officials, Israel’s attack in Lebanon has thus far claimed more than 2,500 lives, displaced more than 1.2 million, and severely damaged a nation already on its knees following almost total collapse of its economy.

Hezbollah is still fighting and killing Israeli soldiers within Lebanon while launching several rockets. But it is suffering after losing its arsenal and chief commander.

Iran decided it had to retaliate when their approach almost collapsed. Letting its supporters fight and die without reacting would undermine its leadership of the anti-western and anti-Israeli groups in the area. Its response was a far larger ballistic missile strike on Israel on October 1.

Israel’s answer was the Friday 25 October airstrikes. They arrived slower than anyone would have imagined. One could consider leaks of Israeli strategies as a factor.

Israel is also launching a significant onslaught into northern Gaza. With the Israeli force subjecting an entire community to bombing, blockade, and the possibility of famine, the UN human rights chief Volker Turk has dubbed it the deadliest point of Gaza’s war.

An outsider cannot know if Israel’s attack timing on Iran was intended to generate global attention away from northern Gaza. Perhaps, though, it was included in the computation.

halting an accelerating spiral of events

Stopping consecutive rounds of strikes and counterattacks is difficult when the nations involved feel they would be viewed as weak and determented if they fail to react. Wars turn out of hand in this manner.

Now, especially on this phase of the fight, the issue is whether Iran is ready to offer Israel the last word. Following 1 October, President Biden supported Israel’s choice for reprisal. Once more, he sought to prevent an even more deadly escalation by openly advising Israel not to target Iran’s most vital assets—its nuclear, oil and gas sites. Prime minister Netanyahu decided to follow his advise after he strengthened Israel’s defences by sending the THAAD anti-missile system to the country.

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Should Donald Trump be granted a second term, he may be less worried than Biden regarding responding to Iranian reprisal with strikes on nuclear, oil and gas sites.

The Middle East waits once more. Israel’s choice not to target Iran’s most valuable assets could perhaps allow Tehran to delay a reaction, at least long enough for diplomats to do their jobs. The Iranians were signaling at the UN General Assembly last month that they were receptive to a fresh round of nuclear negotiations.

All of this should be quite important to people living outside the Middle East. Iran has always denied that it seeks a nuclear weapon. However, its nuclear knowledge and uranium enrichment have made a bomb within reach. Its chiefs have to be searching for fresh approaches to discourage their rivals. On their agenda could be developing a nuclear warhead for their ballistic missiles.





Iceberg A-68: The tale of a mega-berg changing the sea

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Scientists saw a fast widening breach across the massive Larsen C Ice Shelf that pours into the Weddle Sea from the West Antarctica Peninsula late in 2016. A few months later the fracture produced one of the largest icebergs ever seen breaking out into the sea.


Comprising an area of more than 2,200 sq miles (5,700sq km) and roughly 770ft (235m), the enormous block of ice was more than twice the size of Luxembourg. This behemoth, caught in the seasonal embrace of the Antarctic sea ice, hardly moved for a year. But then carried by ocean currents and winds, it started to speed north.

From the Antarctic sea ice to a far-off island in the Southern Ocean, Iceberg A-68 as it was named had started what would be an epic four-year voyage.

A-68
would also become among the most well-known icebergs in the world after its
trip grabbed hold on social media and the globe fell in love with it over the
Christmas of 2020. Maybe everyone was a touch stir-crazy after the Covid-19
lockdowns, but for whatever reason the destiny of iceberg A-68 as it travelled
the Southern Ocean was a sensation.

A somewhat dramatic ending was even possible. Concerned about the great berg
possibly colliding with South Georgia, ecologists feared damage to local
ecosystems. Albatrosses among other imperilled species find refuge on the
far-off island.

Rather, the iceberg split apart and melted gently before the worst could
strike. It broke into tiny bits throughout time, spewing billions of cold,
freshwater into the ocean before at last meeting its end in a slushy whimper in
April 2021.

By doing this, it also changed the surrounding marine environment to provide
special circumstances supporting a whole ecosystem of life. Following the birth
and death of A-68, scientists were able to monitor exactly what such massive
icebergs affect in the nearby sea. A-68 became a frozen lifeboat for many
different species for its brief, fleeting existence as an iceberg.


Scientists have now examined the enormous amounts of data acquired on A-68,
therefore enabling the complete narrative of the iceberg and its effects on the
water.

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Calving from Antarctica

On the part of Antarctica closest to South America, a large length of land stretches out into the Southern Ocean. With many penguin colonies, flora, and other active life, the West Antarctic Peninsula is the most livable section of the continent.

The Larsen ice shelf round the peninsula on its east coast. Tens of thousands of square kilometres of floating glacier ice cover these huge expanses. The thick ice acts as a near-impassable barrier to vessels, thus the seas under them are essentially unknown. Though all but a fraction of it is below sea surface, it can be hundreds of metres thick. Furthermore lacking sunlight for thousands of years is the marine ecosystem and life beneath this thick, ice layer.

Still, the ice sheets are dynamic. Ice gradually and inevitably runs downhill from the continent and out over the sea where it meets the much thinner sea ice, which stretches and retreats with the seasons. This implies that the shelf of continental ice sheet extending over the ocean is always being pushed out towards the open sea. Sometimes a large chunk separates or “calves”.

“Calving is a natural event,” explains Cambridge, UK polar ecologist Geraint Tarling of the British Antarctic Survey.

That exactly transpired in July 2017. Although the large fissure in the Larsen C ice sheet had existed for more than ten years, in late 2016 it started to spread quickly and the ice shelf snapped a few months later. About 10% of the Larsen C shelf broke away as a chunk of ice. In 30 years of data, it was the sixth biggest iceberg adrift in the ocean at the time.

Tracking significant icebergs, the US National Ice Centre assigned the berg “A-68”. The letter details the area from which it calved, and A-68 was the 68th iceberg of appropriate scale for tracking. But within days a chunk broke away, therefore the main iceberg became known as “A-68a”: the breakaway fragments were A-68b, A-68c and so on.

Bringing enormous volumes of fresh water into a habitat could fundamentally alter the ecology from the bottom up – Geraint Tarling
The trip starts here.
A-68’s arrival revealed a section of seabed buried beneath the ice for thousands of years. Before the new circumstance inevitably changed the ecosystems, polar experts were keen to investigate it. “Once it calved and moved off, what was left? There was a major movement to get expeditions in there to see,” explains Tarling. ” Sadly, when it calved there was a lot of ice around… The opportunity was lost.”

Consequently, for a few years most people forgot about A-68a. The surrounding sea ice held the massive iceberg captive in place. Jonathan Amos of BBC News wrote in July 2018 of it as “shuffling on the spot”.

Soon afterward, though, it got up in a whirl-around current known as the Weddell Gyre. It had followed the Peninsula shoreline 155 miles (250km) north by the next summer.

It then gathered speed. As Covid-19 and the first lockdowns spread around the globe in February 2020, iceberg A-68a had reached the edge of year-round sea ice. It came into a territory known as “Iceberg Alley,” where strong currents drove icebergs north into the Southern Ocean.

A-68a was therefore floating on seas warmer than anything it had thus come across. Researchers believed it would break up rapidly; some felt a collapse was likely when a 67 square mile (175 square kilometre) chunk collapsed in April 2020. But the iceberg continued to float on.

According to Tarling, A-68a has grown to be almost unheard-of. “It was the sixth-largest ever detected,” he remarks, and “it stayed together for an incredibly long period”.

At the University of Sheffield, palaeoclimatologist Roseanne Smith was working on a Master’s in polar and alpine change; more precisely, “I was doing it from home”. Grant Bigg, her supervisor, advised she research A-68a and started tracking it using satellite data. “It was a case of waking every morning and then checking where the iceberg had migrated to.”

Smith published her results in 2023 now at the British Antarctic Survey. From the iceberg, the satellites had found enormous yet thin layers of freshwater extending across the ocean for more than 620 miles (1,000km). “Satellites can only tell you anything about the conditions in the top few centimetres of the surface ocean,” notes Smith. Still, they are exposing even in that very highest level of water.

According to Claudia Cenedese, co-author of a 2023 review of melting icebergs and flow dynamicist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, a layer of fresh water usually surrounds an iceberg. “The iceberg moves very slowly compared to the ambient water,” she explains. Since the water melting from the iceberg’s surfaces eventually developed from snow, it is fresh and less dense than the nearby ocean. “It forms this meltwater pool and tops it.”

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Traversal path

Tarling and many others had come to see by the summer of 2020 that A-68a, if it stayed whole, presented a major risk. That is so because the currents would transport it off the point of the Antarctic Peninsula towards South Georgia, off the north-east. Comprising 500,000 square miles (1.24 million square km), the island is the centre of a Marine Protected Area.

“South Georgia is an immensely rich, dynamic marine ecosystem,” notes Tarling. “The reason for that is that the glaciers and the land run-off fertilises the ocean around it.” This enables photosynthetic plankton to flourish in the seas surrounding South Georgia, therefore feeding Antarctic krill and a vast web of bigger species. “There are some valuable fisheries around there for toothfish and icefish, which have to be carefully managed. Further breeding colonies of several threatened species including elephant seals, king penguins and wandering albatrosses call the land home.”

The last item the South Georgia ecology needed was a massive iceberg. Tarling explains, “We were particularly worried about this iceberg approaching this region.” A-68a was deep enough, firstly to scour the shallow bottom around the island, ripping away the many habitats existing there. It might even root itself just offshore, preventing breeding species like seals from travelling out to sea just when they most needed to get food for their young. “That probably would mean that there would be low levels of survival at those colonies for that particular year.” This had happened in 2004 when an iceberg dubbed A-38b anchored itself off South Georgia for months.

Not enough, the iceberg would also alter the chemical composition of the ocean merely because it was primarily fresh water. “Bringing vast volumes of fresh water into an environment could really change the ecosystem from the bottom up,” notes Tarling.


Tarling thus began looking into planning an expedition to the iceberg in summer 2020. He says, “not easy” to do so on short notice. “But we did take advantage of the fact that there was an expedition going in and around that area anyway, for completely different purposes.” Tarling arranged for the RRS James Cook to be diverted to A-68a in February 2021, albeit he had to stay at home owing to the epidemic. He and his associates developed a scheme whereby the ship would transect the freshwater layer around the iceberg, tracking marine life and water conditions as it passed.

Fall
Then in December 2020, “the iceberg started to collapse,” he claims. around the beginning of the month, satellite pictures showed A-68a shedding ice chunks, “riven with cracks” and “fraying at the edges”.

It slid towards South Georgia over the following two weeks. “It got very, very close,” Tarling said. On the continental shelf in the shallow seas close to the island, one corner of the iceberg became stuck. “That bit got stuck. The rest of the iceberg snapped off.” The lodged ice gouged out an area of the seafloor. “We still haven’t returned to find out how bad that was,” Tarling notes. Still, he terms it “a lucky escape”.

A few days later, A68a broke into multiple pieces even still big enough to influence their surrounds. Strong ocean currents were blamed for this second break-up, according to research released the next year. One half of the iceberg was in a slower stream while another section was exposed to a fast-moving current. This produced a strong shearing action breaking off a “finger” of ice from the southern side of the iceberg. There has never been an iceberg witnessed breaking apart for this reason previously.

Tarling’s team had to abandon their original measuring plans and create fresh ones on demand in line with the breakdown. Still, the trouble was well worth it since the circumstances was now far more fascinating. “There have been measurements around icebergs before,” he says; “there hasn’t been any measurements around a collapsing iceberg before.”

Around 1.5 billion tonnes of fresh water were pouring into the ocean daily at the height of her disintegration.
Not long before the RRS James Cook arrived, another sizable piece fell off late January 2021. The researchers used robot gliders, which could navigate among the vast blocks of ice. Sampling the waters, the main ship had to keep a safe distance. “Getting measurements close to icebergs is dangerous,” advises Cenedese.

The iceberg had also begun to melt really rapidly. A-68a was thinning by roughly 23ft (7m) a month as it spent time in the much warmer waters of the north Scotia Sea near South Georgia.

The remaining portion of A-68a was returned out to sea under the strong currents encircling South Africa. Tarling notes, “then it got taken off into the sea a little bit more, and that’s where it collapsed.”

Just shards remained by mid-April 2021. “The largest piece became so small that it was no more officially tracked as a giant iceberg,” explains Smith.

A-68 lost 802 billion tonnes of ice as it thinned from an average thickness of 770ft (235m) to 551ft (168m) on its three- and- a-half-year trip away from the Antarctic ice shelf. Dumping an estimated 152 billion fresh water tonnes into the ocean during a three-month period at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021, it is comparable to roughly 61 million Olympic-sized swimming pools. About 1.5 billion tonnes of fresh water were pouring into the ocean daily during the height of its disintegration.

The consequences this would have for the ocean ecology were significant.

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A distinctive ecology

A-68 did it on a vast scale; icebergs build distinctive and rare transient ecosystems around themselves. Tarling and associates discovered high concentrations of nutrients including nitrate and phosphate in the surface water around the iceberg. The concentrations resembled those of deeper seas more generally. Less dense fresh water melting off the underside of the iceberg, which stretched 463ft (141m) beneath the surface, picked up these nutrients from the deeper ocean and delivered them upward.

Ice-associated algae, species that choose to grow in or near ice, dominated these nutrient-rich melt waters. Tarling notes, “They can deal with high differences in salinity,” which lets them survive migrating between fresh iceberg water and salted ocean.

Tarling comments, “You have this sort of halo effect.” Around A-68a and her iceberg “children,” the ice-associated algae thrived. This drew zooplankton, small animals, to eat them. Tarling says, should the research ship have lingered longer, they most likely would have seen more big animals arriving to eat the zooplankton.

This most certainly included the biggest animals on Earth, baleen whales. “Whales definitely would be in there and thriving on that production given a few more weeks,” notes Tarling. “They are fantastic at detecting patches of productivity. That’s why they thrive. He hypothesises they might even be aware icebergs often leave flowers in their wake. “They’re really intelligent animals.”

Though not in the manner most icebergs do, the massive iceberg also changed the general flow of the seas surrounding it. Usually, fresh water dumping results in stratification—that is, layers of water heaped on top of one another mix less than normal. “You basically increase the stratification if you have freshwater on the surface,” notes Cenedese. “Your make it more stable so mixing it becomes more difficult.”

Not around A-68a though. “Everything was happening so fast it just completely changed the whole dynamic of that,” Tarling remarks. “What was happening was that massive dumps of water were coming in. The weight of the new water drove down the strata beneath, so circumstances that would typically be found 164ft (50m) down were instead found 328ft (100m).

Additionally driven down were any food particles floating in the water. Tarling explains, “this deepening of the water masses is producing an effect we have never seen before, taking all this particulate material down with it.”

Actually, this might have buried more carbon at the bottom of the Southern Ocean. Only a small portion of organic material reaches the seafloor and gets caught there; typically, it drifts gently down slowly through the water and part of it gets eaten. However, the weight of the waters from A-68a as it melted could have helped drive the carbon-based material down more rapidly to depths less likely to be consumed.

Tarling notes, “no one’s ever reported this.” The consequence is that large icebergs like A-68 might assist transport carbon into the sea, somewhat reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

Futuristic icebergs

A-68 was, in many respects, a microcosm of what to expect when climate change causes Antarctica and other big ice sheets to melt.

Huge freshwater dumping into the ocean can, first of all, upset currents. Although Cenedese argues “an individual iceberg is not going to make a difference,” there is a lot of water locked up in the ice of Antarctica. “All that water’s going to get into the ocean.” This is already happening around Antarctica’s shore, but other processes complicate things. “It’s simpler to see what happens near an iceberg since it’s small.”

Tarling is responding by developing ideas for more extensive iceberg research in order to better grasp their impact on the ocean.

Other huge icebergs have emerged since A-68. Two, “by pure luck,” Tarling claims his team already has data from: “We just happened to be in the area.”

Just before A-68 fell, in March 2021, Iceberg A-74 broke off from Antarctica revealing a vast region of seabed rich in life. A-76 first appeared in May 2021. It was the biggest iceberg known in the world at the time. Later in 2023 arrived A-23a. It calved in 1986, then quickly sank in the Weddell Sea and lingered there for years. In December 2023, RRS Sir David Attenborough explored it; the following month another expedition found striking images of caverns and arches carved into its side walls by waves. Still mostly intact is it.

For Antarctic life, these calving events can have rather negative effects. For example, iceberg A-83 broke away from the Brunt Ice Shelf and drifted to a new location that prevented sea access for an emperor penguin colony at Halley Bay. These penguins were already struggling; in 2019 it came to light that they had failed to raise many babies consecutively three years running. An extra hazard came from the iceberg.

It shifted when the long Antarctic winter started, hence the scientists had a protracted nervous wait to find out what had become of the emperor penguins. Peter Fretwell of the British Antarctic Survey informed BBC News in late September that satellite images had shown “a brown smudge on the white ice sheet”, therefore proving the colony’s survival.

Such icebergs must be understood, adds Tarling, since climate change is melting Antarctica. “The probability of icebergs like this coming into Iceberg Alley is greater and will be becoming greater,” he notes. We may expect many more massive bergs like A-68.










Iran’s and Israel’s current situation

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Among the most complicated and deeply ingrained geopolitical concerns in the world, Iran’s relationship with Israel is one These two countries have kept a long-standing rivalry characterised by times of increased tension, political wrangle, and sporadic de-escalation. But what is happening right now between Israel and Iran? For the Middle East and the world community, what does it imply?

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The present scenario, the underlying reasons of their dispute, important events of recent months, and their repercussions for the area will be discussed in this paper. Understanding these components helps us to appreciate the continuous dynamics between these two countries and how it affects more general world relations.

The underlying reasons of conflicts between Iran and Israel

Ideological
and Historical Differences
Decades of hostility between Iran and Israel have their roots in politics, philosophy, and power rather than in any one thing. Mostly Shia Muslim, Iran sees Israel as violating Palestinian rights and has long campaigned for Palestinian statehood. Iran has positioned itself as a backer of anti-Israel attitude since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, therefore fighting what it views as Western imperialism in the Middle East.

Conversely, Israel has major security issues over Iran’s presence in the area. Leaders of Israel feel that direct threat to Israeli security comes from Iran’s backing of armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. This underlying ideological resistance has created a constant state of conflict, which has made the contacts between the two countries suspicious and hostile.

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The Nuclear Question: A Fundamental Point of Argument
The nuclear program of Iran is among the most divisive topics available. Iran claims its program is for benign uses, including medical research and energy generation, while Israel and many Western nations contend Iran wants nuclear weapons developed. Claiming it would cause further instability in the Middle East, Israeli officials say a nuclear-armed Iran would fundamentally change the balance of powers.

Commonly referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has experienced uneven outcomes in attempts to control this. Israel’s worries have been heightened by the U.S. pull from the agreement in 2018 and Iran’s later ramping up of uranium enrichment, which has resulted in covert and overt acts meant to stop Iran’s nuclear advancement.


Recent Significant Events Increasing Tension

Cyberattacks and assassination
Targeted attacks, cyberwarfare, and espionage are among the many ways tensions show up. Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was killed in 2020—a death Iran links to Israel’s Mossad. Iranian leaders then promised retribution, therefore starting a cycle of revenge that still goes on today.

Another important battlefield is now cyberwarfare. Israel has been connected to many cyberattacks aiming at Iran’s nuclear infrastructure; Iran has reacted with cyber operations aiming at Israeli companies and vital infrastructure. These cyber battles highlight the technological aspects of their conflict as well as the extent both sides are ready to go to protect their interests.

Regional Power Notes: Syria and Lebanon

Through proxies in nations like Syria and Lebanon, Iran and Israel also collide. Frequent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian installations in Syria follow Iran’s support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and military deployment close to Israel’s borders. “Our red line is Iran’s military presence close to our borders,” Israeli officials have said often.

One of Israel’s most powerful non-state enemies still is Hezbollah, supported by Iran, in Lebanon. Israel has cautioned that purportedly supplied by Iran, Hezbollah’s expanding armament might cause another catastrophic conflict, which both sides wish to prevent but seem ready for.

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How Allies and Global Politics Shape This Conflict?

Triangle US-Iran-Israel
Long Israel’s loyal friend, the United States has been instrumental in
determining the dynamics between Israel and Iran. Israel was alarmed when the
US government decided to interact with Iran again over the nuclear agreement.
While the U.S. aims to stop nuclear escalation by negotiation, Israel thinks a
softened approach could empower Iran.

The Power of Russia and China
Engagement by Russia and China with Iran adds still another level of
complication. Russia’s alliance with Iran, particularly in Syria, and China’s
economic ties to Iran—including infrastructure investment and oil
imports—challenge the U.S. and Israel’s sway. This web of connections
emphasises how the Iran-Israel conflict affects world politics by transcending
regional boundaries.



Possible Middle Eastern Results

Risk of Increased Conflict Escalation
The continuous conflict has inspired worries about an all-out war. Experts warn
that mistakes might cause a more intense confrontation, maybe including
neighbouring nations or sparking general Middle Eastern upheaval. From military
conflicts to economic sanctions, Iran’s nuclear program’s advancement or any
significant incident’s occurrence could have major consequences for the area.

Affect on World Economy and Oil Markets
Iran is a significant oil producer; any battle with Israel could affect oil
supply, particularly via the Strait of Hormuz—a vital oil conduit. Oil prices
are vulnerable to regional instability; even the fear of conflict can have
global economic consequences. For countries now negotiating a post-pandemic
recovery, changes in oil flow would aggravate financial strains.

Humanitarian Issues and Forced Displacement

Conflict in the area has human costs as well. Any military conflict would
probably cause civilian casualties and displacement, aggravating the already
difficult humanitarian scene in the Middle East. Rising numbers of refugees and
internal displacement in nations including Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq would put
further strain on resources and social stability.

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Is peace feasible? Prospects and Difficulties


Communication and Diplomacy

Some contend that long-term peace depends on diplomatic means. The Abraham
Accords, which helped to normalise ties between Israel and numerous Arab
governments, inspired hope for regional peace in recent times. But Iran’s
absence from these agreements fuels more conflict than solutions. Some analysts
contend that including Iran into a regional discourse will help to open the
path for a more inclusive and enduring peace.

The Function of World Organisations

Promoting peace and enabling debates are tasks of international organisations
such as the European Union and the United Nations. These companies might
inspire both parties to limit provocations and invest in cooperative solutions
like arms reduction or economic partnerships by means of the appropriate
pressure and rewards.

The Authority of Popular Opinion
Policy might also be shaped in part by public mood. There are those in both
Iran and Israel who support peace and stress shared interests above political
differences. Encouragement of people-to—person initiatives, cross-cultural
interactions, and citizen dialogue will help to create an environment in which
governments might finally show themselves in their policies.

In a complex relationship, the road forward is ultimately:
Still complicated and full of historical grudges, ideological conflicts, and
geopolitical pressures is Iran’s relationship with Israel. Probably not too far
off is peace. Maybe not, but knowledge of the intricacies of this struggle is
crucial. Recognising the interests and worries on both sides helps the world
community to support initiatives aiming at preventing escalation and promote
communication.

Although the road ahead is not obvious, peace is still a possibility if
diplomatic remedies can surpass the present conflicts. Should both parties give
regional stability and world economic interests top priority, then what appears
to be an ingrained rivalry may finally lead to peaceful cohabitation.


Common Questions

Between Iran and Israel, what is the primary reason of their conflict?

Ideological differences, Iran’s sponsorship of anti-Israel groups, and the divisive question of Iran’s nuclear program—which Israel regards as a serious security threat—are the main causes.

How does the Iran-Israel conflict get shaped by the US?

Key friend of Israel, the United States has great influence thanks to military and diplomatic support as well as its posture on Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

Have the tensions between Iran and Israel lately evolved?

Indeed, recent events that keep raising tensions include cyberattacks, deliberate killings, and proxy battles in Syria and Lebanon.

Between Iran and Israel, is a peace accord conceivable?

Though difficult, peace could be attained by diplomatic initiatives, regional collaboration, and handling of both political aspirations and security issues of both countries.





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